Crypto markets are generally driven by bitcoin. Therefore it's highly probable that we won’t see another significant bull run until 2021, at least nothing similar to the 2017th bull run. We might even experience a further price loss towards the end of the year.
Let’s look at bitcoin’s history to understand why.
Bitcoin was worth nothing when it was first released to the world.
The first record of value for bitcoin is July 19, 2010, it was worth $0.06 then.
The 1st Halving
On Dec 31st, 2012, right before 2013, the year of the first halving (when the mining reward was set to go from 50 bitcoins to 25 bitcoins), it was worth $13.41. By the end of 2013, it was worth $817.12 (a +6200% increase).
As for average transaction fee, it was $0.0104 at the start of 2013 and went up to $0.208 at the end of that year (a +2000% increase)
Within less than 6 months the price dropped almost 50% to fluctuate around the $400 mark, while the average transaction fee dropped by 2,581% to $0.103.
The 2nd Halving
On Dec 26th, 2016, right before 2017, the year of the second halving, (when the mining reward was set to go from 25 bitcoins to 12.5 bitcoins), it was worth $958.24. By the end of 2017, it was worth $15,572.80 (a +1600% increase).
As for average transaction fee, it was $0.396 at the start of 2017 and went up to $30.028 at the end of that year (a +7580% increase)
Within less than 6 months the price dropped almost 50% to $6,613 and average transaction fees by 2,581% to $1.023.
In the years between the halvings, there were fluctuations but nothing as significant or drastic.
It's fair to say that so far, halving years have shown the tendency to be the most volatile when it comes to price and transaction fees and cause the bitcoin price and fees to experience massive upward movement.
So there's a high probability that until the year of the next halving 2021, (when the mining reward was set to go from 12.5 bitcoins to 6.25 bitcoins), we will not see any significant bull movement.
PS: Obviously this analysis is based on only two halving events, but the pattern is so similar that I think it’s worth considering as a strong possibility.
Love to hear your feedback and comments, why you agree or disagree.